ISLAMABAD, PAKISTAN / RankWire.AI / – Pakistan accounts for approximately 48% of individuals living in extreme poverty across the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan region, based on the World Bank’s October 2026 economic report. The measurement employs the international threshold of $3 a day in 2021 purchasing power parity terms. Between 2018-19 and 2024-25, Pakistan’s poverty rate at that level increased by 6.4 percentage points, making the country the leading contributor to extreme poverty within the MENAAP group.
The World Bank indicated that Afghanistan, Syria, and Yemen collectively represent another 47% of the region’s population living below the $3 daily threshold. When combined with Pakistan, these four nations account for roughly 95% of the region’s extreme poor. Currently, MENAAP constitutes about 14% of the global extreme poor, a share surpassed only by Sub-Saharan Africa. Furthermore, the region remains the only one under the World Bank’s classification where poverty levels are above pre-pandemic figures and continue to grow.
At the higher $4.20-a-day poverty line, used to define lower-middle-income economies, Pakistan also saw a decline. The percentage of people below this threshold increased by 3.2 percentage points from 2018-19 to 2024-25. According to World Bank data, the rate reached around 48% in 2024, compared to 44.7% in 2018. The report attributes this worsening to the COVID-19 pandemic, the floods of 2022, high inflation, currency depreciation, and an extended period of economic adjustment.
Poverty levels intensify following multiple shocks
These latest figures come after a significant update to the World Bank’s global poverty database in March 2026. Incorporating new household survey data from Pakistan, the estimated extreme poverty rate for MENAAP in 2024 was revised upward from 11.8% to 14.4%. This revision increased the region’s estimated number of people living in extreme poverty by about 21 million. In September 2026, the World Bank stated that MENAAP remained one of only two regions with extreme poverty rates exceeding 5%, alongside Sub-Saharan Africa.
Although Pakistan’s economy has shown some recovery from recent lows, poverty indicators remain high. The October regional update forecasted Pakistan’s GDP growth at 3.7% for fiscal 2025-26, with an anticipated 3.8% in fiscal 2026-27. The report projects real GDP per capita growth at 2.1% in 2026 and 2.2% in 2027. Inflation is expected to be 7.1% in 2026 and rise to 8.2% in 2027, following a lower rate in 2025.
The regional classification influences the headline figure
The 48% statistic reflects the World Bank’s current MENAAP regional classification, which has included Pakistan and Afghanistan since September 2025. Prior to this change, the World Bank’s regional data categorized both countries within South Asia. Pakistan’s government clarified that this adjustment was administrative and statistical, and did not alter the country’s geographic identity or income classification. Finance Minister adviser Khurram Schehzad explained that the revised grouping affected regional poverty totals by incorporating Pakistan’s large population into the MENAAP figures.
The October update from the World Bank also pointed to a weaker regional economy in 2026. It projected a contraction of 2.1% in MENAAP’s output after a growth of 3.3% in 2025, due to conflicts and disruptions in energy, logistics, and trade sectors. Oil-importing developing economies, including Pakistan, remained comparatively resilient, with the update forecasting a 4.3% growth for this group in 2026. However, rising food and energy costs continue to strain household purchasing power in several economies across the region.